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The tendency for some people, especially those with depression, to overestimate the likelihood of negative things happening to them. (compare optimism bias) Present bias: The tendency of people to give stronger weight to payoffs that are closer to the present time when considering trade-offs between two future moments. [110] Plant blindness
Fallacy of quoting out of context (contextotomy, contextomy; quotation mining) – selective excerpting of words from their original context to distort the intended meaning. [31] False authority (single authority) – using an expert of dubious credentials or using only one opinion to promote a product or idea. Related to the appeal to authority.
This is called informational social influence. [11] [12] The problem, though, is that people are often unable to accurately perceive the social norm and the actual attitudes of others. In other words, research has shown that people are surprisingly poor "intuitive psychologists" and that our social judgments are often inaccurate. [10]
A continually evolving list of cognitive biases has been identified over the last six decades of research on human judgment and decision-making in cognitive science, social psychology, and behavioral economics. The study of cognitive biases has practical implications for areas including clinical judgment, entrepreneurship, finance, and management.
Wishful-thinking effects, in which people overestimate the likelihood of an event because of its desirability, are relatively rare. [10] This may be in part because people engage in more defensive pessimism in advance of important outcomes, [11] in an attempt to reduce the disappointment that follows overly optimistic predictions. [12]
Image credits: ResurgentClusterfuck Such discussions might seem inconsequential at first, but amusement aside, they also help us normalize setbacks—something many people really struggle with.
[2] [7] [9] This type of explanation is sometimes called "noise plus bias". [15] According to the better-than-average effect, people generally tend to rate their abilities, attributes, and personality traits as better than average. [36] [37] For example, the average IQ is 100, but people on average think their IQ is 115. [7]
Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said on Sunday that former President Trump showed bad judgment on Jan. 6, 2021, but that is “not the same thing as a crime.” “I’ve been ...