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In business cycle theory and finance, any economic quantity that is positively correlated with the overall state of the economy is said to be procyclical. [2] That is, any quantity that tends to increase in expansion and tend to decrease in a recession is classified as procyclical.
A cyclical (temporary) deficit is a deficit that is related to the business or economic cycle. The business cycle is the period of time it takes for an economy to move from expansion to contraction, until it begins to expand again. This cycle can last anywhere from several months to many years, and does not follow a predictable pattern. [11]
One usage describes an act of stimulating the economy by increasing the money supply or by reducing taxes, seeking to bring the economy (specifically the price level) back up to the long-term trend, following a dip in the business cycle. It is the opposite of disinflation, which seeks to return the economy back down to the long-term trend. [1] [2]
A government deficit can be thought of as consisting of two elements, structural and cyclical. At the lowest point in the business cycle, there is a high level of unemployment. This means that tax revenues are low and expenditure (e.g., on social security) high. Conversely, at the peak of the cycle, unemployment is low, increasing tax revenue ...
Despite the often-applied term cycles, the fluctuations in business economic activity do not exhibit uniform or predictable periodicity. [6] According to standard theory, a decrease in price will result in less supply and more demand, while an increase in price will do the opposite.
Okun's law is an empirical relationship. In Okun's original statement of his law, a 2% increase in output corresponds to a 1% decline in the rate of cyclical unemployment; a 0.5% increase in labor force participation; a 0.5% increase in hours worked per employee; and a 1% increase in output per hours worked (labor productivity).
Real macroeconomic output can be decomposed into a trend and a cyclical part, where the variance of the cyclical series derived from the filtering technique (e.g., the band-pass filter, or the most commonly used Hodrick–Prescott filter) serves as the primary measure of departure from economic stability.
The principle behind Obama administration's actions was referred to as trickle-up economics, [14] but the term bottom-up economics was also used for it. [15] On February 17, 2009, President Obama signed into law the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), a $787 billion economic stimulus package aimed at helping the economy recover from the deepening worldwide recession. [16]