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In contract bridge, the Rule of 11 is applied when the opening lead is the fourth best from the defender's suit. [1] By subtracting the rank of the card led from 11, the partner of the opening leader can determine how many cards higher than the card led are held by declarer, dummy and himself; by deduction of those in dummy and in his own hand, he can determine the number in declarer's hand.
The increase or decrease in probability is an example of Bayesian updating as evidence accumulates and particular applications of restricted choice are similar to the Monty Hall problem. In many of those situations the rule derived from the principle is to play for split honors. After observing one equivalent card, that is, one should continue ...
from a suit headed by an honour, defender generally leads the fourth best card, allowing partner to employ the Rule of 11; from an honourless suit, the highest or second-highest is normally led, especially against suit contracts; some partnerships lead fourth best against notrump though. From hands containing both A and K
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In the card game contract bridge, the Losing-Trick Count (LTC) is a method of hand evaluation that is generally only considered suitable to be used in situations where a trump suit has been established and when shape and fit are more significant than high card points (HCP) in determining the optimum level of the contract.
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If responder has 11 or 12 HCP, then a small slam is a possibility but more information is needed about opener's hand before it should be bid. This is where a quantitative bid should be made. A bid of 4NT "invites" opener to: bid 6NT with a maximum holding of 22 HCP (11 + 22 = 33 which is sufficient) pass with a minimum 20 HCP (11+ 20 = only 31)
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