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D. G. Champernowne built a Markov chain model of the distribution of income in 1953. [86] Herbert A. Simon and co-author Charles Bonini used a Markov chain model to derive a stationary Yule distribution of firm sizes. [87] Louis Bachelier was the first to observe that stock prices followed a random walk. [88]
A game of snakes and ladders or any other game whose moves are determined entirely by dice is a Markov chain, indeed, an absorbing Markov chain. This is in contrast to card games such as blackjack, where the cards represent a 'memory' of the past moves. To see the difference, consider the probability for a certain event in the game.
In statistics, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a class of algorithms used to draw samples from a probability distribution.Given a probability distribution, one can construct a Markov chain whose elements' distribution approximates it – that is, the Markov chain's equilibrium distribution matches the target distribution.
A Tolerant Markov model (TMM) is a probabilistic-algorithmic Markov chain model. [6] It assigns the probabilities according to a conditioning context that considers the last symbol, from the sequence to occur, as the most probable instead of the true occurring symbol.
A family of Markov chains is said to be rapidly mixing if the mixing time is a polynomial function of some size parameter of the Markov chain, and slowly mixing otherwise. This book is about finite Markov chains, their stationary distributions and mixing times, and methods for determining whether Markov chains are rapidly or slowly mixing. [1] [4]
[1] [2] Such models are often described as M/G/1 type Markov chains because they can describe transitions in an M/G/1 queue. [3] [4] The method is a more complicated version of the matrix geometric method and is the classical solution method for M/G/1 chains. [5]
A Markov arrival process is defined by two matrices, D 0 and D 1 where elements of D 0 represent hidden transitions and elements of D 1 observable transitions. The block matrix Q below is a transition rate matrix for a continuous-time Markov chain.
When the probability distribution of the variable is parameterized, mathematicians often use a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. [4] [5] [6] The central idea is to design a judicious Markov chain model with a prescribed stationary probability distribution. That is, in the limit, the samples being generated by the MCMC method will be ...