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The region surrounds the maximum-likelihood estimate, and all points (parameter sets) within that region differ at most in log-likelihood by some fixed value. The χ 2 distribution given by Wilks' theorem converts the region's log-likelihood differences into the "confidence" that the population's "true" parameter set lies inside. The art of ...
Instead, the ratings of likelihood matched the ratings of similarity almost perfectly, both in this study and a similar one where subjects judged the likelihood of a fictional woman taking different careers. This suggests that rather than estimating probability using base rates, subjects had substituted the more accessible attribute of similarity.
Greater likelihood of recalling recent, nearby, or otherwise immediately available examples, and the imputation of importance to those examples over others. Bizarreness effect: Bizarre material is better remembered than common material. Boundary extension: Remembering the background of an image as being larger or more expansive than the ...
The lack of appropriate WEPs would lead to confusion about the likelihood of an attack and to guessing about the period in which it was likely to occur. The language used in the memo lacks words of estimative probability that reduce uncertainty, thus preventing the President and his decisionmakers from implementing measures directed at stopping ...
Likelihoodist statistics or likelihoodism is an approach to statistics that exclusively or primarily uses the likelihood function.Likelihoodist statistics is a more minor school than the main approaches of Bayesian statistics and frequentist statistics, but has some adherents and applications.
Risk is the lack of certainty about the outcome of making a particular choice. Statistically, the level of downside risk can be calculated as the product of the probability that harm occurs (e.g., that an accident happens) multiplied by the severity of that harm (i.e., the average amount of harm or more conservatively the maximum credible amount of harm).
Wishful-thinking effects, in which people overestimate the likelihood of an event because of its desirability, are relatively rare. [10] This may be in part because people engage in more defensive pessimism in advance of important outcomes, [ 11 ] in an attempt to reduce the disappointment that follows overly optimistic predictions.
It contrasts with the likelihood function, which is the probability of the evidence given the parameters: (|). The two are related as follows: Given a prior belief that a probability distribution function is p ( θ ) {\displaystyle p(\theta )} and that the observations x {\displaystyle x} have a likelihood p ( x | θ ) {\displaystyle p(x|\theta ...