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Historically, attempts to quantify probabilistic reasoning date back to antiquity. There was a particularly strong interest starting in the 12th century, with the work of the Scholastics, with the invention of the half-proof (so that two half-proofs are sufficient to prove guilt), the elucidation of moral certainty (sufficient certainty to act upon, but short of absolute certainty), the ...
The essay includes theorems of conditional probability which form the basis of what is now called Bayes's Theorem, together with a detailed treatment of the problem of setting a prior probability. Bayes supposed a sequence of independent experiments, each having as its outcome either success or failure, the probability of success being some ...
A probabilistic proof is one in which an example is shown to exist, with certainty, by using methods of probability theory. Probabilistic proof, like proof by construction, is one of many ways to prove existence theorems. In the probabilistic method, one seeks an object having a given property, starting with a large set of candidates.
This is a list of probability topics. It overlaps with the (alphabetical) list of statistical topics. There are also the outline of probability and catalog of articles in probability theory. For distributions, see List of probability distributions. For journals, see list of probability journals.
Also confidence coefficient. A number indicating the probability that the confidence interval (range) captures the true population mean. For example, a confidence interval with a 95% confidence level has a 95% chance of capturing the population mean. Technically, this means that, if the experiment were repeated many times, 95% of the CIs computed at this level would contain the true population ...
Many probability text books and articles in the field of probability theory derive the conditional probability solution through a formal application of Bayes' theorem; among them books by Gill [51] and Henze. [52] Use of the odds form of Bayes' theorem, often called Bayes' rule, makes such a derivation more transparent. [34] [53]
The term stochastic process first appeared in English in a 1934 paper by Joseph L. Doob. [1] For the term and a specific mathematical definition, Doob cited another 1934 paper, where the term stochastischer Prozeß was used in German by Aleksandr Khinchin, [22] [23] though the German term had been used earlier in 1931 by Andrey Kolmogorov. [24]
Alternatively, the probabilistic method can also be used to guarantee the existence of a desired element in a sample space with a value that is greater than or equal to the calculated expected value, since the non-existence of such element would imply every element in the sample space is less than the expected value, a contradiction.