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In not-breaking news, the 2024 race for the White House appears very close.Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages ...
ABC News project 538: The final poll shows Harris with a 48.0% to 46.8% edge over Trump. 270towin : Showing a composite of the latest national polls , Harris currently leads Trump by 1.2%.
According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
The prediction model comes days after a shock new poll from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom in Iowa found Harris leading Trump in the state, with 47 percent to 44 percent.. Trump won Iowa in ...
The following head-to-head polls feature some of the individuals who officially declared their candidacies. The incumbent president, Joe Biden , won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris , who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the ...
Based on 538’s latest analysis of presidential polls, Trump now has the barest advantage in the race, with a 52-in-100 chance to win. Two weeks ago, Harris had a 58-in-100 chance to win. Two ...
On June 6, 2010, FiveThirtyEight posted pollster rankings that updated and elaborated Silver's efforts from the 2008 election. Silver expanded the database to more than 4,700 election polls and developed a model for rating the polls that was more sophisticated than his original rankings. [538 3] [13] Silver responded on 538: "Where's the ...
The number of electoral votes, out of 538, allocated to each state and the District of Columbia for presidential elections held in 2024 and to be held in 2028 based on the 2020 census. Every jurisdiction is entitled to at least 3.