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In the 2020 election, RealClearPolitics projected Joe Biden winning with 319 electoral votes. RCP expected Biden to capture key battleground states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which had flipped to Trump in 2016. RCP's final prediction closely aligned with the actual results, as Biden won 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232.
State or district EV PVI [1] 2016 result 2020 result Cook Oct 28, 2020 [2] Inside Elections Oct 28, 2020 [3] Sabato Nov 2, 2020 [4] Politico Nov 2, 2020 [5] Real Clear Politics
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Joe Biden Democratic Donald Trump Republican Other/ Undecided [d] Margin 270 to Win [30] October 16–31, 2020 November 1, 2020 49.4%: 44.4% 6.2% Biden +5.0: Real Clear Politics [31] October 23 – November 2, 2020 November 1, 2020 48.7%: 46.3% 5.0% Biden +2.4: FiveThirtyEight [32 ...
It is informed by turnout in recent elections, details on votes cast in advance and – after polls close – early returns. The estimate may fluctuate as election officials report additional results and AP learns more about how many voters have cast a ballot.
For example, Trump was leading Harris by 1 percentage point in a Real Clear Politics average of Pennsylvania polls on Monday, while Harris led by 0.3 percentage points in Wisconsin. − Marina ...
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This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the general election for the 2020 United States presidential election.If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters (LV) is prioritized, then registered voters (RV), then adults (A).
Finally, there’s this grim reality: In roughly 1-in-5 cases, the polls taken in the final three weeks of a campaign are just plain wrong, according to a fascinating bit of data wonkery from ...