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The probability of default is an estimate of the likelihood that the default event will occur. It applies to a particular assessment horizon, usually one year. Credit scores, such as FICO for consumers or bond ratings from S&P, Fitch or Moodys for corporations or governments, typically imply a certain probability of default.
As another example, a two-year return of 10% converts to an annualized rate of return of 4.88% = ((1+0.1) (12/24) − 1), assuming reinvestment at the end of the first year. In other words, the geometric average return per year is 4.88%. In the cash flow example below, the dollar returns for the four years add up to $265.
In a 1988 paper [5] economists John Y. Campbell and Robert Shiller concluded that "a long moving average of real earnings helps to forecast future real dividends" which in turn are correlated with returns on stocks. The idea is to take a long-term average of earnings (typically 5 or 10 year) and adjust for inflation to forecast future returns.
How FICO scores are calculated. Each FICO version weights different aspects of your credit history slightly differently, but all FICO scores are calculated based on the following five factors:
A fund like Fidelity’s 500 Index Fund is a good comprise, with annual three-, five- and 10-year returns of 9.58%, 14.98% and 13.14%, respectively. Another option is a dividend fund.
With an interest rate of i = 10%, and n = 10 years, the CRF = 0.163. This means that a loan of $1,000 at 10% interest will be paid back with 10 annual payments of $163. [2] Another reading that can be obtained is that the net present value of 10 annual payments of $163 at 10% discount rate is $1,000. [2]
So with our 10% rate of return, it will take 7.2 years to double the investment. Note: the effectiveness of the rule of 72 varies by how high or low the return rate is. Anything in the 6-10% range ...
This rate, which acts like an interest rate on future Cash inflows, is used to convert them into current dollar equivalents. Terminal Value: The value of a business at the end of the projection period (typical for a DCF analysis is either a 5-year projection period or, occasionally, a 10-year projection period). [1]