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Robert D. Arnott (born June 29, 1954 [1]) is an American businessman, investor, and writer who focuses on articles about quantitative investing.. He is the founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, an asset management firm.
An investor in a dumped-stocks portfolio optimized for the five years after deletion would have multiplied their wealth by a factor of 74 between the start of 1991 and the end of 2023, it estimated.
It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings (moving average), adjusted for inflation. [3] As such, it is principally used to assess likely future returns from equities over timescales of 10 to 20 years, with higher than average CAPE values implying lower than average long-term annual average returns.
As another example, a two-year return of 10% converts to an annualized rate of return of 4.88% = ((1+0.1) (12/24) − 1), assuming reinvestment at the end of the first year. In other words, the geometric average return per year is 4.88%. In the cash flow example below, the dollar returns for the four years add up to $265.
A fund like Fidelity’s 500 Index Fund is a good comprise, with annual three-, five- and 10-year returns of 9.58%, 14.98% and 13.14%, respectively. Another option is a dividend fund.
So with our 10% rate of return, it will take 7.2 years to double the investment. Note: the effectiveness of the rule of 72 varies by how high or low the return rate is. Anything in the 6-10% range ...
The rate of return on a portfolio can be calculated indirectly as the weighted average rate of return on the various assets within the portfolio. [3] The weights are proportional to the value of the assets within the portfolio, to take into account what portion of the portfolio each individual return represents in calculating the contribution of that asset to the return on the portfolio.
The expected return (or expected gain) on a financial investment is the expected value of its return (of the profit on the investment). It is a measure of the center of the distribution of the random variable that is the return. [ 1 ]