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Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms.
A financial forecast is an estimate of future financial outcomes for a company or project, usually applied in budgeting, capital budgeting and / or valuation. Depending on context, the term may also refer to listed company (quarterly) earnings guidance. For a country or economy, see Economic forecast.
ITEM stands for Independent Treasury Economic Model. It was founded in 1977 to produce quarterly economic UK forecasts, which are often mentioned in the UK news media. [1] It has been sponsored by EY (Ernst & Young), a firm of business and financial advisers, [2] and was officially named The EY ITEM Club in 2012. The ITEM Club is clear in all ...
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term.
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A consensus forecast is a prediction of the future created by combining several separate forecasts which have often been created using different methodologies. They are used in a number of sciences, ranging from econometrics to meteorology, and are also known as combining forecasts, forecast averaging or model averaging (in econometrics and statistics) and committee machines, ensemble ...
An example of a model for forecasting demand is M. Roodman's (1986) demand forecasting regression model for measuring the seasonality affects on a data point being measured. [11] The model was based on a linear regression model , and is used to measure linear trends based on seasonal cycles and their affects on demand i.e. the seasonal demand ...
Unlike a pure economic budget, they are not entirely designed to allocate scarce resources for the best economic use. Government budgets also have a political basis wherein different interests push and pull in an attempt to obtain benefits and avoid burdens. The technical element is the forecast of the likely levels of revenues and expenses.