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Similarly, business failures and stock market prices tend to be countercyclical. In finance, an asset that tends to do well while the economy as a whole is doing poorly is referred to as countercyclical, and could be for example a business or a financial instrument whose value is derived from sales of an inferior good.
A cyclical (temporary) deficit is a deficit that is related to the business or economic cycle. The business cycle is the period of time it takes for an economy to move from expansion to contraction, until it begins to expand again. This cycle can last anywhere from several months to many years, and does not follow a predictable pattern. [11]
One usage describes an act of stimulating the economy by increasing the money supply or by reducing taxes, seeking to bring the economy (specifically the price level) back up to the long-term trend, following a dip in the business cycle. It is the opposite of disinflation, which seeks to return the economy back down to the long-term trend. [1] [2]
In recent years economic theory has moved towards the study of economic fluctuation rather than a "business cycle" [42] – though some economists use the phrase 'business cycle' as a convenient shorthand. For example, Milton Friedman said that calling the business cycle a "cycle" is a misnomer, because of its non
Real macroeconomic output can be decomposed into a trend and a cyclical part, where the variance of the cyclical series derived from the filtering technique (e.g., the band-pass filter, or the most commonly used Hodrick–Prescott filter) serves as the primary measure of departure from economic stability.
An example of a counter-cyclical policy is raising taxes to cool the economy and to prevent inflation when there is abundant demand-side growth, and engaging in deficit spending on labour-intensive infrastructure projects to stimulate employment and stabilize wages during economic downturns.
Economic cyclical asymmetry is usually based on cyclical trends in national markets, such as the labor market. A simple example is found in the yearly changes in demand for labor. Job markets are, by nature, cyclical, with upswings in certain sectors such as retail near year's end, and in construction during the spring and summer. [3]
Despite the often-applied term cycles, the fluctuations in business economic activity do not exhibit uniform or predictable periodicity. [6] According to standard theory, a decrease in price will result in less supply and more demand, while an increase in price will do the opposite.