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Allan Lichtman, the American political historian known as the “Nostradamus of presidential predictions”, has officially declared that Kamala Harris will win this year’s race for the White House.
An American political historian known as the "Nostradamus" of elections was seemingly at a loss for words Wednesday when he realized his prediction — that Kamala Harris would win the ...
To be sure, Lichtman's predictions haven't always been on the money. He got the 2000 election wrong when he predicted a victory for Al Gore instead of the eventual winner, George W. Bush.
Allan Jay Lichtman (/ ˈ l ɪ k t m ən /; born April 4, 1947) is an American historian who has taught at American University in Washington, D.C. since 1973. He is known for creating the Keys to the White House with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.
J. Ann Selzer's once-respected poll showed that Kamala Harris was leading in Iowa — only for Trump to win the state by more than 13 percentage points on Election Day.
Similarly, he predicted in 2010 that Barack Obama would win re-election in 2012, a prediction made when Obama's job approval ratings were below 50 percent. [70] When the keys model was first developed, it was for predicting the national popular vote. [71] In 1999, Lichtman predicted a win for Al Gore in 2000, and Gore did win the popular vote. [72]
A notable elections forecaster predicted Vice President Harris will win November’s election, according to his model of 13 keys. Allan Lichtman, a historian who has successfully predicted the ...
In September, he said Harris has the advantage in eight of the 13 keys while Trump has three. And the professor’s remark that the “October surprise” is a myth does have some historical basis.