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[2] [3] The PERT distribution is widely used in risk analysis [4] to represent the uncertainty of the value of some quantity where one is relying on subjective estimates, because the three parameters defining the distribution are intuitive to the estimator. The PERT distribution is featured in most simulation software tools.
It can be understood as representing the time, effort, and resources required to move from one event to another. A PERT activity cannot be performed until the predecessor event has occurred. PERT sub-activity: a PERT activity can be further decomposed into a set of sub-activities. For example, activity A1 can be decomposed into A1.1, A1.2 and A1.3.
For example, a triangular distribution might be used, depending on the application. In three-point estimation, three figures are produced initially for every distribution that is required, based on prior experience or best-guesses: a = the best-case estimate; m = the most likely estimate; b = the worst-case estimate
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It's much less popular than PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) or CPM (Critical Path Method) however, it allows some of those methods limitations to be addressed. The main limitations of PERT or CPM that might be addressed by GERT are: there are no alternative paths - all activities have to be performed
The Wideband Delphi estimation method is a consensus-based technique for estimating effort. [1] It derives from the Delphi method which was developed in the 1950-1960s at the RAND Corporation as a forecasting tool.
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