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The chain-ladder or development [1] method is a prominent [2] [3] actuarial loss reserving technique. The chain-ladder method is used in both the property and casualty [1] [4] and health insurance [5] fields. Its intent is to estimate incurred but not reported claims and project ultimate loss amounts. [5]
Actuarial notation is a shorthand method to allow actuaries to record mathematical formulas that deal with interest rates and life tables. Traditional notation uses a halo system, where symbols are placed as superscript or subscript before or after the main letter. Example notation using the halo system can be seen below.
Let Y be a random variable and X another random variable on the same probability space. The law of total variance can be understood by noting: The law of total variance can be understood by noting: Var ( Y ∣ X ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {Var} (Y\mid X)} measures how much Y varies around its conditional mean E [ Y ∣ X ...
In actuarial science and applied probability, ruin theory (sometimes risk theory [1] or collective risk theory) uses mathematical models to describe an insurer's vulnerability to insolvency/ruin. In such models key quantities of interest are the probability of ruin, distribution of surplus immediately prior to ruin and deficit at time of ruin.
Note that there are only people without numbers, meaning we must choose at least one person with a number in order to form a committee of + people. In general, in case x {\displaystyle x} , person x {\displaystyle x} is on the committee and persons 1 , 2 , 3 , … , x − 1 {\displaystyle 1,2,3,\dots ,x-1} are not on the committee.
When he turned his attention to the question of valuing annuities payable on more than one life, de Moivre found it convenient to drop his assumption of an equal number of deaths (per year) in favor of an assumption of equal probabilities of death at each year of age (i.e., what is now called the "constant force of mortality" assumption ...
Actuarial credibility describes an approach used by actuaries to improve statistical estimates. Although the approach can be formulated in either a frequentist or Bayesian statistical setting, the latter is often preferred because of the ease of recognizing more than one source of randomness through both "sampling" and "prior" information.
The number of claims N is a random variable, which is said to have a "claim number distribution", and which can take values 0, 1, 2, .... etc..For the "Panjer recursion", the probability distribution of N has to be a member of the Panjer class, otherwise known as the (a,b,0) class of distributions.