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For example, if company A pays a quarterly dividend of $0.25 in 2012. If an investor buys a 2012 dividend future, the settlement price of the future will be equal to 4 x $0.25 = $1 per contract. The profit or loss the investor makes depends on the difference between the price they bought or sold the future and the settlement price.
Forward prices of equity indices are calculated by computing the cost of carry of holding a long position in the constituent parts of the index. This will typically be the risk-free interest rate, since the cost of investing in the equity market is the loss of interest minus the estimated dividend yield on the index, since an equity investor receives the sum of the dividends on the component ...
The opposite market condition to normal backwardation is known as contango. Contango refers to "negative basis" where the future price is trading above the expected spot price. [3] Note: In industry parlance backwardation may refer to the situation that futures prices are below the current spot price. [4]
As a result, the forward price for nonperishable commodities, securities or currency is no more a predictor of future price than the spot price is - the relationship between forward and spot prices is driven by interest rates. For perishable commodities, arbitrage does not have this The above forward pricing formula can also be written as:
The company's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.5 is more or less an all-time low since the company went public 30 years ago. Tack on a 4.4% annual yield and you have a standout bargain!
For example, a futures contract on a zero-coupon bond will have a futures price lower than the forward price. This is called the futures "convexity correction". Thus, assuming constant rates, for a simple, non-dividend paying asset, the value of the futures/forward price, F(t,T) , will be found by compounding the present value S(t) at time t to ...
where F is the current (time t) cost of establishing a futures contract, S is the current price (spot price) of the underlying stock, r is the annualized risk-free interest rate, t is the present time, T is the time when the contract expires and PV(Div) is the Present value of any dividends generated by the underlying stock between t and T.
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