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Hayek created the Austrian business cycle theory, which synthesizes Menger's capital theory and Mises's theory of money and credit. [226] The theory proposes a model of inter-temporal investment in which production plans precede the manufacture of the finished product.
It turned out that pure new classical models had low explanatory and predictive power. The models could not simultaneously explain both the duration and magnitude of actual cycles. Additionally, the model's key result that only unexpected changes in money can affect the business cycle and unemployment did not stand empirical tests.
Early real business-cycle models postulated an economy populated by a representative consumer who operates in perfectly competitive markets. The only sources of uncertainty in these models are "shocks" in technology. [2] RBC theory builds on the neoclassical growth model, under the assumption of flexible prices, to study how real shocks to the ...
The graphic model shows combinations of interest rates and output that ensure equilibrium in both the goods and money markets under the model's assumptions. [49] The goods market is modeled as giving equality between investment and public and private saving (IS), and the money market is modeled as giving equilibrium between the money supply and ...
Business cycle accounting is an accounting procedure used in macroeconomics to decompose business cycle fluctuations into contributing factors. The procedure was introduced by V. V. Chari, Patrick Kehoe, and Ellen McGrattan but is similar to techniques introduced earlier. The underlying premise of the procedure is that the economy has a long ...
Lucas's model dominated new classical economic business cycle theory until 1982 when real business cycle theory, starting with Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott, [8] replaced Lucas's theory of a money driven business cycle with a strictly supply based model that used technology and other real shocks to explain fluctuations in output. [9]
Lucas' model was superseded as the standard model of New Classical Macroeconomics by the Real Business Cycle Theory, proposed in 1982 by Finn Kydland (1943–) and Edward C. Prescott (1940–), which seeks to explain observed fluctuations in output and employment in terms of real variables such as changes in technology and tastes. Assuming ...
For example, Milton Friedman said that calling the business cycle a "cycle" is a misnomer, because of its non-cyclical nature. Friedman believed that for the most part, excluding very large supply shocks, business declines are more of a monetary phenomenon. [43] Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell define business cycle as a form of ...