Search results
Results from the WOW.Com Content Network
A convex function of a martingale is a submartingale, by Jensen's inequality. For example, the square of the gambler's fortune in the fair coin game is a submartingale (which also follows from the fact that X n 2 − n is a martingale). Similarly, a concave function of a martingale is a supermartingale.
The anti-martingale approach, also known as the reverse martingale, instead increases bets after wins, while reducing them after a loss. The perception is that the gambler will benefit from a winning streak or a "hot hand", while reducing losses while "cold" or otherwise having a losing streak.
By construction, this implies that if is a martingale, then = will be an MDS—hence the name. The MDS is an extremely useful construct in modern probability theory because it implies much milder restrictions on the memory of the sequence than independence , yet most limit theorems that hold for an independent sequence will also hold for an MDS.
Now let X t be a martingale or a positive submartingale; if the index set is uncountable, then (as above) assume that the sample paths are right-continuous. In these scenarios, Jensen's inequality implies that | X t | p is a submartingale for any number p ≥ 1 , provided that these new random variables all have finite integral.
In the mathematical theory of probability, a Doob martingale (named after Joseph L. Doob, [1] also known as a Levy martingale) is a stochastic process that approximates a given random variable and has the martingale property with respect to the given filtration. It may be thought of as the evolving sequence of best approximations to the random ...
Note that the vanilla Azuma's inequality requires symmetric bounds on martingale increments, i.e. .So, if known bound is asymmetric, e.g. , to use Azuma's inequality, one need to choose = (| |, | |) which might be a waste of information on the boundedness of .
The martingale characterization conveys the intuition that no effective procedure should be able to make money betting against a random sequence. A martingale d is a betting strategy. d reads a finite string w and bets money on the next bit. It bets some fraction of its money that the next bit will be 0, and then remainder of its money that the ...
The condition that the martingale is bounded is essential; for example, an unbiased random walk is a martingale but does not converge. As intuition, there are two reasons why a sequence may fail to converge. It may go off to infinity, or it may oscillate. The boundedness condition prevents the former from happening.