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Prospect theory is a theory of behavioral economics, judgment and decision making that was developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. [1] The theory was cited in the decision to award Kahneman the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics .
It is an idea introduced in prospect theory. Normally a reduction in the probability of winning a reward (e.g., a reduction from 80% to 20% in the chance of winning a reward) creates a psychological effect such as displeasure to individuals, which leads to the perception of loss from the original probability thus favoring a risk-averse decision.
In prospect theory, the pseudocertainty effect is the tendency for people to perceive an outcome as certain while it is actually uncertain in multi-stage decision making. . The evaluation of the certainty of the outcome in a previous stage of decisions is disregarded when selecting an option in subsequent stag
Gain and loss are defined in the scenario as descriptions of outcomes, for example, lives lost or saved, patients treated or not treated, monetary gains or losses. [ 2 ] Prospect theory posits that a loss is more significant than the equivalent gain, [ 2 ] that a sure gain ( certainty effect and pseudocertainty effect ) is favored over a ...
In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky traced the cause of the disposition effect to the so-called "prospect theory". [3] The prospect theory proposes that when an individual is presented with two equal choices, one having possible gains and the other with possible losses, the individual is more likely to opt for the former choice even ...
Reference dependence is a central principle in prospect theory and behavioral economics generally. It holds that people evaluate outcomes and express preferences relative to an existing reference point, or status quo. It is related to loss aversion and the endowment effect. [1] [2]
Classification: Social psychology: Behavioral economics: Prospect theory Pages in category "Prospect theory" The following 28 pages are in this category, out of 28 total.
In line with prospect theory (Tversky and Kahneman, 1979 [24]), changes that are framed as losses are weighed more heavily than are the changes framed as gains. Thus an individual owning "A" amount of a good, asked how much he/she would be willing to pay to acquire "B", would be willing to pay a value (B-A) that is lower than the value that he ...