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A calculus of voting represents a hypothesized decision-making process. These models are used in political science in an attempt to capture the relative importance of various factors influencing an elector to vote (or not vote) in a particular way.
Electoral Calculus was founded and is run by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. [2] The Electoral Calculus website includes election data, predictions and analysis. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and in Northern Ireland. [3]
As one prominent example, Charles James Fox, the late-eighteenth-century Whig statesman, was known as an inveterate gambler. His biographer, George Otto Trevelyan, noted that"(f)or ten years, from 1771 onwards, Charles Fox betted frequently, largely, and judiciously, on the social and political occurrences of the time."
Examples of subjects where election science methods are applied include gerrymandering, electoral fraud, suffrage, and voter registration. There is an academic conference [4] dedicated to the study of election science and the Southern Political Science Association has a sub-conference for the study of election science. [5]
Psephology (/ s ɪ ˈ f ɒ l ə dʒ i /; from Greek ψῆφος, psephos, 'pebble') is the study of elections and voting. [1] Psephology attempts to both forecast and explain election results.
Electoral geography is the analysis of the methods, the behavior, and the results of elections in the context of geographic space and using geographical techniques. . Specifically, it is an examination of the dual interaction in which geographical affect the political decisions, and the geographical structure of the election system affects electora
The Electoral College map — which has long instilled bipartisan anxiety on election night in the U.S. — is eliciting more laughs than groans in the lead-up to November.
For the 2024 Conservative Party leadership election, Electoral Calculus conducted a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) opinion poll on behalf of Jack Lewy of the Robert Jenrick campaign, asking the general public how they would vote if respectively Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick were elected leader of the Conservatives.