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In statistical hypothesis testing, a type I error, or a false positive, is the rejection of the null hypothesis when it is actually true. A type II error, or a false negative, is the failure to reject a null hypothesis that is actually false. [1] Type I error: an innocent person may be convicted. Type II error: a guilty person may be not convicted.
This is the most popular null hypothesis; It is so popular that many statements about significant testing assume such null hypotheses. Rejection of the null hypothesis is not necessarily the real goal of a significance tester. An adequate statistical model may be associated with a failure to reject the null; the model is adjusted until the null ...
At a significance level of 0.05, a fair coin would be expected to (incorrectly) reject the null hypothesis (that it is fair) in 1 out of 20 tests on average. The p-value does not provide the probability that either the null hypothesis or its opposite is correct (a common source of confusion). [36]
The following table defines the possible outcomes when testing multiple null hypotheses. Suppose we have a number m of null hypotheses, denoted by: H 1, H 2, ..., H m. Using a statistical test, we reject the null hypothesis if the test is declared significant. We do not reject the null hypothesis if the test is non-significant.
More precisely, a study's defined significance level, denoted by , is the probability of the study rejecting the null hypothesis, given that the null hypothesis is true; [4] and the p-value of a result, , is the probability of obtaining a result at least as extreme, given that the null hypothesis is true. [5]
T(y) is the value of the test statistic for an outcome y, with larger values of T representing cases which notionally represent greater departures from the null hypothesis, and where the sum ranges over all outcomes y (including the observed one) that have the same value of the test statistic obtained for the observed sample x , or a larger one.
Type I errors which consist of rejecting a null hypothesis that is true; this amounts to a false positive result. Type II errors which consist of failing to reject a null hypothesis that is false; this amounts to a false negative result.
In 1970, L. A. Marascuilo and J. R. Levin proposed a "fourth kind of error" – a "type IV error" – which they defined in a Mosteller-like manner as being the mistake of "the incorrect interpretation of a correctly rejected hypothesis"; which, they suggested, was the equivalent of "a physician's correct diagnosis of an ailment followed by the ...