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Weather reconnaissance aircraft, such as this WP-3D Orion, provide data that is then used in numerical weather forecasts.. The atmosphere is a fluid.As such, the idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future.
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is a joint project involving the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in Canada, the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States, and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (NMSM) in Mexico providing numerical weather prediction ensemble guidance for the 1- to 16-day forecast period. [1]
The global models are run at varying times into the future. The Met Office's Unified Model is run six days into the future, [55] the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is run out to 10 days into the future, [56] while the Global Forecast System model run by the Environmental Modeling Center is run 16 days into the future. [57]
This allows regional models to resolve explicitly smaller-scale meteorological phenomena that cannot be represented on the coarser grid of a global model. Regional models use a global model for initial conditions of the edge of their domain in order to allow systems from outside the regional model domain to move into its area.
To address a growing need for remote access to high volume numerical weather prediction and global climate models and data, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), initiated the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) project.
The global models are run outwards to varying times into the future. The UKMET Unified Model is run six days into the future, [16] the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is run out to 10 days into the future, [17] while the Global Forecast System model run by the Environmental Modeling Center is run 16 days into the future ...
The global models are run at varying times into the future. The UKMET Unified model is run six days into the future, [41] the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is run out to 10 days into the future, [42] while the Global Forecast System model run by the Environmental Modeling Center is run 16 days into the future. [43]