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An electoral swing analysis (or swing) shows the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage. A multi-party swing is an indicator of a change in the electorate's preference between candidates or parties, often between major parties in a two-party system.
To calculate the power of a voter using the Banzhaf index, list all the winning coalitions, then count the critical voters. A critical voter is a voter who, if he changed his vote from yes to no, would cause the measure to fail. A voter's power is measured as the fraction of all swing votes that he could cast.
The campaign focus should be held mostly to keeping the base and using data to determine how to swing the undecided voters. Fourth, now that the campaign has identified the ideal base strategy, it is now time to allocate resources properly to make sure your strategy is fulfilled to its extent, (Sides et al. pg. 126, para 4, and pg. 127, para 1).
Swing was originated by David Butler, a political science academic at Nuffield College, Oxford.In a contribution to The British General Election of 1945 he wrote "this measurement of 'swing', admittedly imperfect, does give us a broad idea of the movement of opinion from Conservative to Labour" and went on to compare the swings in each area of the country.
A handful of swing states decide US presidential elections. The 2024 contest could come down to just four. The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics published its first forecast of the ...
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The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated PVI or CPVI, is a measurement of how partisan a U.S. congressional district or U.S. state is. [1] This partisanship is indicated as lean towards either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, [2] compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections.