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The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania. [1] [2] [3]
One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like ...
Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019.
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
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Besides that, the search for specific instances of existential risk, such as nuclear war or genetically engineered bioweapons, provide an enormous accumulation of research. Both authors claim that this different is symptomatic of the Bostrom attachment to self-defined criteria and terms for this kind of theme, remaining, according to them ...
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Movies theaters may be reopening their doors for a summer of superhero flicks and franchise tentpoles, but streamers -- our cinematic saviors this past year -- won't be left out of the blockbuster ...