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Time series analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting is the use of a model to predict future values based on previously observed values.
Black = unfiltered data; red = data averaged every 10 points; blue = data averaged every 100 points. All have the same trend, but more filtering leads to higher r 2 of fitted trend line. The least-squares fitting process produces a value, r-squared ( r 2 ), which is 1 minus the ratio of the variance of the residuals to the variance of the ...
In statistics, an approximate entropy (ApEn) is a technique used to quantify the amount of regularity and the unpredictability of fluctuations over time-series data. [1] For example, consider two series of data:
Like approximate entropy (ApEn), Sample entropy (SampEn) is a measure of complexity. [1] But it does not include self-similar patterns as ApEn does. For a given embedding dimension, tolerance and number of data points, SampEn is the negative natural logarithm of the probability that if two sets of simultaneous data points of length have distance < then two sets of simultaneous data points of ...
Exponential smoothing or exponential moving average (EMA) is a rule of thumb technique for smoothing time series data using the exponential window function. Whereas in the simple moving average the past observations are weighted equally, exponential functions are used to assign exponentially decreasing weights over time. It is an easily learned ...
In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. [1] [2] The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable.
Partial autocorrelation function of Lake Huron's depth with confidence interval (in blue, plotted around 0). In time series analysis, the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) gives the partial correlation of a stationary time series with its own lagged values, regressed the values of the time series at all shorter lags.
For example, time series are usually decomposed into: , the trend component at time t, which reflects the long-term progression of the series (secular variation). A trend exists when there is a persistent increasing or decreasing direction in the data. The trend component does not have to be linear. [1]