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Congressional stagnation is an American political theory that attempts to explain the high rate of incumbency re-election to the United States House of Representatives. In recent years this rate has been well over 90 per cent, with rarely more than 5–10 incumbents losing their House seats every election cycle. [1]
These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
A high correlation between election and incumbency has been demonstrated in congressional races. The success rate of incumbent members of the U.S. House of Representatives seeking re-election averaged 93.5 percent during the 1960s and 1970s. [1] Statistically, the initial edge for the incumbent candidate is 2-4 percent of the vote. [2]
He served 19 years in Congress and represented New York’s 26th Congressional District, which will likely stay in Democratic hands. The Cook Political Report considers the race “solid Democrat ...
A number of incumbent House lawmakers have announced they will not seek another term in office. The announcements ring in a likely season of retirement decisions, as Democrats and Republicans ...
Rep. Barry Moore has defeated Rep. Jerry Carl in a rare incumbent-vs.-incumbent Republican primary spurred by a Supreme Court decision forcing Alabama to adopt redrawn congressional districts.
Incumbent representatives often win renomination, although there are some instances of incumbents who lose to a primary challenge. In cases of redistricting, incumbents may run against each other in the same district.
In one of the most closely watched congressional races this year, U.S. Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska is looking to defeat a fellow Republican in Tuesday's primary election in his quest for reelection.