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A statistical model is a mathematical model that embodies a set of statistical assumptions concerning the generation of sample data (and similar data from a larger population). A statistical model represents, often in considerably idealized form, the data-generating process . [ 1 ]
George Box. The phrase "all models are wrong" was first attributed to George Box in a 1976 paper published in the Journal of the American Statistical Association.In the paper, Box uses the phrase to refer to the limitations of models, arguing that while no model is ever completely accurate, simpler models can still provide valuable insights if applied judiciously. [1]
One approach is to start with a model in general form that relies on a theoretical understanding of the data-generating process. Then the model can be fit to the data and checked for the various sources of misspecification, in a task called statistical model validation. Theoretical understanding can then guide the modification of the model in ...
Statistical models specify a set of statistical assumptions and processes that represent how the sample data are generated. Statistical models have a number of parameters that can be modified. For example, a coin can be represented as samples from a Bernoulli distribution, which models two possible outcomes. The Bernoulli distribution has a ...
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Statistical Modelling is a bimonthly peer-reviewed scientific journal covering statistical modelling. It is published by SAGE Publications on behalf of the Statistical Modelling Society. The editors-in-chief are Brian D. Marx ( Louisiana State University ), Vicente Núñez-Antón ( University of the Basque Country ), and Arnošt Komárek ...
The general ARMA model was described in the 1951 thesis of Peter Whittle, who used mathematical analysis (Laurent series and Fourier analysis) and statistical inference. [ 12 ] [ 13 ] ARMA models were popularized by a 1970 book by George E. P. Box and Jenkins, who expounded an iterative ( Box–Jenkins ) method for choosing and estimating them.
Model selection is the task of selecting a model from among various candidates on the basis of performance criterion to choose the best one. [1] In the context of machine learning and more generally statistical analysis, this may be the selection of a statistical model from a set of candidate models, given data.