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Probability is the branch of mathematics and statistics concerning events and numerical descriptions of how likely they are to occur. The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1; the larger the probability, the more likely an event is to occur. [note 1] [1] [2] A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the ...
This rule allows one to express a joint probability in terms of only conditional probabilities. [4] The rule is notably used in the context of discrete stochastic processes and in applications, e.g. the study of Bayesian networks, which describe a probability distribution in terms of conditional probabilities.
A discrete probability distribution is the probability distribution of a random variable that can take on only a countable number of values [15] (almost surely) [16] which means that the probability of any event can be expressed as a (finite or countably infinite) sum: = (=), where is a countable set with () =.
Intuitively, the additivity property says that the probability assigned to the union of two disjoint (mutually exclusive) events by the measure should be the sum of the probabilities of the events; for example, the value assigned to the outcome "1 or 2" in a throw of a dice should be the sum of the values assigned to the outcomes "1" and "2".
In probability and statistics, a compound probability distribution (also known as a mixture distribution or contagious distribution) is the probability distribution that results from assuming that a random variable is distributed according to some parametrized distribution, with (some of) the parameters of that distribution themselves being random variables.
For example, the transition probabilities from 5 to 4 and 5 to 6 are both 0.5, and all other transition probabilities from 5 are 0. These probabilities are independent of whether the system was previously in 4 or 6. A series of independent states (for example, a series of coin flips) satisfies the formal definition of a Markov chain.
The term law of total probability is sometimes taken to mean the law of alternatives, which is a special case of the law of total probability applying to discrete random variables. [ citation needed ] One author uses the terminology of the "Rule of Average Conditional Probabilities", [ 4 ] while another refers to it as the "continuous law of ...
This is called the addition law of probability, or the sum rule. That is, the probability that an event in A or B will happen is the sum of the probability of an event in A and the probability of an event in B, minus the probability of an event that is in both A and B. The proof of this is as follows: Firstly,
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