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The Cook Partisan Voting Index, abbreviated PVI or CPVI, is a measurement of how partisan a U.S. congressional district or U.S. state is. [1] This partisanship is indicated as lean towards either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, [2] compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the previous two presidential elections.
Lean R Likely R Very Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Michigan: 15 Nov 5 09:00 pm R+1: 50.6% D 2.78% Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Likely D Minnesota: 10 Nov 5 09:00 pm D+1: 52.4% D 7.11% Lean D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D NE–01 [a] 1 Nov 5 09:00 pm R+9 [b] 56.0% R [b] 14. ...
[538 17] [538 18] He developed a list of 2010 Senate races in which he made monthly updates of predicted party turnover. [ 538 19 ] Later, Silver adapted his methods to address a variety of issues of the day, including health care reform, climate change, unemployment, and popular support for same-sex marriage. [ 29 ]
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
You can check which is which by looking them up on 538's pollster ratings page. If a pollster has a 3.0 rating, you should take it pretty seriously; if it has a 0.5 rating, it's not very reliable.
As of Oct. 17 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, Harris leads Trump 48.1 percent to 47.5 percent in 538’s polling average of the state — virtually the same margin Democrats won the state by in 2020.
These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.
Here are six state legislatures where partisan control is up for grabs. Michigan Democrats are playing defense in the Great Lakes State’s state House, where the party holds 56 seats while ...