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Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms.
Temporal difference (TD) learning refers to a class of model-free reinforcement learning methods which learn by bootstrapping from the current estimate of the value function. These methods sample from the environment, like Monte Carlo methods , and perform updates based on current estimates, like dynamic programming methods.
SPF has been used in academic research on forecast accuracy and forecast bias. [4] [7] [8] A 1997 analysis of density forecasts of inflation made in the SPF finds: "The probability of a large negative inflation shock is generally overestimated, and in more recent years the probability of a large shock of either sign is overestimated.
In the study of human–computer interaction, predictability is the property to forecast the consequences of a user action given the current state of the system. A contemporary example of human-computer interaction manifests in the development of computer vision algorithms for collision-avoidance software in self-driving cars.
A consensus forecast is a prediction of the future created by combining several separate forecasts which have often been created using different methodologies. They are used in a number of sciences, ranging from econometrics to meteorology, and are also known as combining forecasts, forecast averaging or model averaging (in econometrics and statistics) and committee machines, ensemble ...
Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.
Behavioral economics is the study of the psychological (e.g. cognitive, behavioral, affective, social) factors involved in the decisions of individuals or institutions, and how these decisions deviate from those implied by traditional economic theory. [1] [2] Behavioral economics is primarily concerned with the bounds of rationality of economic ...
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]