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The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. . Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not ...
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events".It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania.
Forecasters were judged based on their predictions during the two-year period starting on Oct. 1, 2008, including the financial crisis and a portion of the current recovery.
Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences.
Wall Street's top forecasters see an emerging set of themes driving their outlooks for the stock market in 2025. ... The best books of 2024, according to Goodreads. See all deals. In Other News.
Out of the 50 books I finished this year, these are the ones I loved so much I couldn’t stop talking about them. Some of these are older releases and some were published in 2024, but all of them ...
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