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Tetlock is also President and Chief Scientist of Forecasting Research Institute, [12] which organized, among other things "the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament" that involved 169 experts recording probability judgements on existential risks between June and October 2022. They asked 80 subject matter experts and 89 "superforecasters" to ...
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events".It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania.
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
As Philip Tetlock, a U.C. Berkeley professor who studies expert predictions, put it, most experts could be beaten by a "dart-throwing chimp." ... The 2001 forecast essentially predicted a decade ...
One of the most famous pieces of research on prediction was done by Philip Tetlock. He asked a group of pundits and foreign affairs experts to speculate about various geopolitical events, like ...
First edition (publ. Princeton University Press) Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? is a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock.The book mentions how experts are often no better at making predictions than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable.
The average forecast for the group tends to predict the S&P 500 climbing by about 10%, which is in line with historical averages. After two years of above-average gains , an average year is what ...
The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is The Good Judgment Project from Philip E. Tetlock et al. [12] (winner of a 2013 ACE tournament) [7] ACE also partnered with the ARA to create the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES).