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The Keys to the White House, also known as the 13 keys, is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States.It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
The system, dubbed the "13 Keys to the White House" uses – you guessed it – thirteen true-or-false statements rooted in historical analysis about the state of the country, the parties and the ...
Allan Lichtman, Distinguished Professor at American University and author of "Predicting The Next President, the Keys to the White House 2012" discusses his 13 keys to a successful election ...
Allan Jay Lichtman (/ ˈ l ɪ k t m ən /; born April 4, 1947) is an American historian who has taught at American University in Washington, D.C. since 1973. He is known for creating the Keys to the White House with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.
Here’s how his model works: If six or more of the keys cut against the party in the White House, they're predicted to lose. Otherwise, Lichtman forecasts the party in power will win again.
Despite the attention for predicting Trump would win in 2016, Norpoth's election model only said that Trump would win the two-party popular vote 52.5% to 47.5%; Trump actually lost the 2016 two-party popular vote 48.2% to 46.1%, and the Primary Model for the next elections was modified to predict only the Electoral College votes as a result.
Allan Lichtman, Distinguished Professor at American University and author of "Predicting The Next President, the Keys to the White House 2012" discusses his 13 keys to a successful election ...
Keilis-Borok, in collaboration with Allan Lichtman, used some of his techniques to create The Keys to the White House, a presidential election prediction system. It has accurately predicted every United States presidential election since 1984, with the exception of the 2024 election and 2000 election. [8]