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  2. Planning fallacy - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planning_fallacy

    In a 1994 study, 37 psychology students were asked to estimate how long it would take to finish their senior theses.The average estimate was 33.9 days. They also estimated how long it would take "if everything went as well as it possibly could" (averaging 27.4 days) and "if everything went as poorly as it possibly could" (averaging 48.6 days).

  3. Forecasting - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecasting

    Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared with what actually happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis.

  4. Error correction model - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Error_correction_model

    Thus detrending does not solve the estimation problem. In order to still use the Box–Jenkins approach, one could difference the series and then estimate models such as ARIMA, given that many commonly used time series (e.g. in economics) appear to be stationary in first differences. Forecasts from such a model will still reflect cycles and ...

  5. Forecast error - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecast_error

    If a main application of the forecast is to predict when certain thresholds will be crossed, one possible way of assessing the forecast is to use the timing-error—the difference in time between when the outcome crosses the threshold and when the forecast does so.

  6. Bootstrapping (statistics) - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootstrapping_(statistics)

    Bootstrapping is a procedure for estimating the distribution of an estimator by resampling (often with replacement) one's data or a model estimated from the data. [1] Bootstrapping assigns measures of accuracy (bias, variance, confidence intervals, prediction error, etc.) to sample estimates.

  7. Anchoring effect - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring_effect

    Another example may be when estimating the orbit of Mars, one might start with the Earth's orbit (365 days) and then adjust upward until they reach a value that seems reasonable (usually less than 687 days, the correct answer). The original description of the anchoring effect came from psychophysics. When judging stimuli along a continuum, it ...

  8. Delphi method - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method

    The Delphi method or Delphi technique (/ ˈ d ɛ l f aɪ / DEL-fy; also known as Estimate-Talk-Estimate or ETE) is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts.

  9. Three-point estimation - Wikipedia

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-point_estimation

    These values are used to calculate an E value for the estimate and a standard deviation (SD) as L-estimators, where: E = (a + 4m + b) / 6 SD = (b − a) / 6. E is a weighted average which takes into account both the most optimistic and most pessimistic estimates provided. SD measures the variability or uncertainty in the estimate.

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