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[14] [15] It would have been incorrect, and an example of prosecutor's fallacy, to rely solely on the "1 in 400" figure to deduce that a given person matching the sample would be likely to be the culprit. Frequency tree of 100 000 battered American women showing the base rate fallacy made by the defense in the O. J. Simpson murder trial
A base rate is a phenomenon's basic rate of incidence. The base rate fallacy describes how people do not take the base rate of an event into account when solving probability problems. [12] This was explicitly tested by Dawes, Mirels, Gold and Donahue (1993) who had people judge both the base rate of people who had a particular personality trait ...
For example, if there is a test for a disease which has an accuracy of 90%, people may think it's a 90% they have the disease even though the disease only affects 1 in 500 people. [ 46 ] Common sense heuristic: Used frequently by individuals when the potential outcomes of a decision appear obvious.
The false positive rate is equal to the significance level. The specificity of the test is equal to 1 minus the false positive rate. In statistical hypothesis testing, this fraction is given the Greek letter α, and 1 − α is defined as the specificity of the test. Increasing the specificity of the test lowers the probability of type I errors ...
For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time. [5] [43] [44] [45] Planning fallacy, the tendency for people to underestimate the time it will take them to complete a given task. [46]
For example, if the control group, using no treatment at all, had their own base rate of 1/20 recoveries within 1 day and a treatment had a 1/100 base rate of recovery within 1 day, we see that the treatment actively decreases the recovery. The base rate is an important concept in statistical inference, particularly in Bayesian statistics. [2]
Northeast snowfall along the Interstate 95 Boston to Washington, D.C. corridor has been lacking in recent years. But on Dec. 19, 2009, 15 years ago today, the Northeast was in the midst of a major ...
Exemplification theory is a simple combination of these heuristics. It posits that since exemplars come to mind more easily than base-rates when accessing information, available exemplars will dominate base-rate information when making judgments of event populations. [6] Behavioral intentions are the direct determinants of behaviors. [7]