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The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to November 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) determined that candidates could qualify for the first two Democratic primary debates either by polling at 1% or higher in at least three national or early-state (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina) polls sponsored or conducted by designated organizations (in different regions if by the same organization) published after January 1, 2019, up ...
That undershoot of 3 points follows polls in 2020 that underestimated Trump's national margin by 4 points and in 2016 that underestimated his performance by 2 points, according to 538's averages.
Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used: Tossup: No advantage; Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" Lean: Slight advantage; Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR) Safe or solid: Near-certain chance of victory
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
Today, the 538 average of surveys gauging the former president’s popularity shows his unfavorable rating sitting at 52.1 percent. Harris’ unfavorable rating is at 52.22 percent in the same ...
It is informed by turnout in recent elections, details on votes cast in advance and – after polls close – early returns. The estimate may fluctuate as election officials report additional results and AP learns more about how many voters have cast a ballot.
At the same time, FiveThirtyEight ' s daily "Today's Polls" column began to be mirrored on "The Plank", a blog published by The New Republic. [24] In July 2008, the site began to report regular updates of projections of 2008 U.S. Senate races. Special procedures were developed relying on both polls and demographic analysis. The projections were ...