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The probability of the correct choice is 0.74 here. Suppose the two stimuli x 1 {\displaystyle x_{1}} and x 2 {\displaystyle x_{2}} in the 2AFC task are random variables from two different categories a {\displaystyle a} and b {\displaystyle b} , and the task is to decide which was which.
The distinction between ambiguity aversion and risk aversion is important but subtle. Risk aversion comes from a situation where a probability can be assigned to each possible outcome of a situation and it is defined by the preference between a risky alternative and its expected value. Ambiguity aversion applies to a situation when the ...
The theory of subjective expected utility combines two concepts: first, a personal utility function, and second, a personal probability distribution (usually based on Bayesian probability theory). This theoretical model has been known for its clear and elegant structure and its considered by some researchers to be "the most brilliant axiomatic ...
An individual that is risk averse has a certainty equivalent that is smaller than the prediction of uncertain gains. The risk premium is the difference between the expected value and the certainty equivalent. For risk-averse individuals, risk premium is positive, for risk-neutral persons it is zero, and for risk-loving individuals their risk ...
Λp is the absolute difference between pre- and posttest probability of conditions (such as diseases) that the test is expected to achieve. r i is the rate of how much probability differences are expected to result in changes in interventions (such as a change from "no treatment" to "administration of low-dose medical treatment").
Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and estimation of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of the system are not exactly known.
The difference is how much the representation of the facts has been compressed by assuming that H is true. This is the evidence that the hypothesis H is true. If () is estimated from encoding length then the probability obtained will not be between 0 and 1. The value obtained is proportional to the probability, without being a good probability ...
The differences between these interpretations are rather small, and may seem inconsequential. One of the main points of disagreement lies in the relation between probability and belief. Logical probabilities are conceived (for example in Keynes ' Treatise on Probability [ 12 ] ) to be objective, logical relations between propositions (or ...