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Climate models divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid and apply differential equations to each grid. The equations are based on the basic laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry. Numerical climate models (or climate system models) are mathematical models that can simulate the interactions of important drivers of climate.
Weather reconnaissance aircraft, such as this WP-3D Orion, provide data that is then used in numerical weather forecasts.. The atmosphere is a fluid.As such, the idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future.
The global climate models used for climate projections are similar in structure to (and often share computer code with) numerical models for weather prediction, but are nonetheless logically distinct. Most weather forecasting is done on the basis of interpreting numerical model results. Since forecasts are typically a few days or a week and sea ...
These models typically require far less compute than physics-based models. [81] Microsoft's Aurora system offers global 10-day weather and 5-day air pollution (CO 2, NO, NO 2, SO 2, O 3, and particulates) forecasts with claimed accuracy similar to physics-based models, but at orders-of-magnitude lower cost. Aurora was trained on more than a ...
Statistical models were created based upon the three-dimensional fields produced by numerical weather models, surface observations, and the climatological conditions for specific locations. These statistical models are collectively referred to as model output statistics (MOS), [ 76 ] and were developed by the National Weather Service for their ...
It proved to be tens of thousands of times faster than the best “numerical weather prediction” models, while often also improving their accuracy. In less than two seconds, the model can ...
The model predicts an Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity of 1.9 °C, at the lower end of the range of GCM predictions. The model's surface temperature distribution is overly-symmetric, and does not represent the northern bias in location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The model generally shows lower skill at low latitudes.
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).