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A Bayesian average is a method of estimating the mean of a population using outside information, especially a pre-existing belief, [1] which is factored into the calculation. This is a central feature of Bayesian interpretation. This is useful when the available data set is small. [2] Calculating the Bayesian average uses the prior mean m and a ...
Exploratory analysis of Bayesian models is an adaptation or extension of the exploratory data analysis approach to the needs and peculiarities of Bayesian modeling. In the words of Persi Diaconis: [17] Exploratory data analysis seeks to reveal structure, or simple descriptions in data. We look at numbers or graphs and try to find patterns.
Bayesian inference is an important technique in statistics, and especially in mathematical statistics. Bayesian updating is particularly important in the dynamic analysis of a sequence of data. Bayesian inference has found application in a wide range of activities, including science, engineering, philosophy, medicine, sport, and law.
In general, any two sets of nodes are conditionally independent given a third set if a criterion called d-separation holds in the graph. Local independences and global independences are equivalent in Bayesian networks. This type of graphical model is known as a directed graphical model, Bayesian network, or belief network.
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Given a sample from a normal distribution, whose parameters are unknown, it is possible to give prediction intervals in the frequentist sense, i.e., an interval [a, b] based on statistics of the sample such that on repeated experiments, X n+1 falls in the interval the desired percentage of the time; one may call these "predictive confidence intervals".
In the context of Bayesian statistics, the posterior probability distribution usually describes the epistemic uncertainty about statistical parameters conditional on a collection of observed data. From a given posterior distribution, various point and interval estimates can be derived, such as the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or the highest ...
The resulting point estimate is therefore like a weighted average of the sample mean ¯ and the prior mean =. This turns out to be a general feature of empirical Bayes; the point estimates for the prior (i.e. mean) will look like a weighted averages of the sample estimate and the prior estimate (likewise for estimates of the variance).