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In statistics and in empirical sciences, a data generating process is a process in the real world that "generates" the data one is interested in. [1] This process encompasses the underlying mechanisms, factors, and randomness that contribute to the production of observed data.
A statistical model is a mathematical model that embodies a set of statistical assumptions concerning the generation of sample data (and similar data from a larger population). A statistical model represents, often in considerably idealized form, the data-generating process . [ 1 ]
Model selection is the task of selecting a model from among various candidates on the basis of performance criterion to choose the best one. [1] In the context of machine learning and more generally statistical analysis , this may be the selection of a statistical model from a set of candidate models, given data.
The posterior probability of a model depends on the evidence, or marginal likelihood, which reflects the probability that the data is generated by the model, and on the prior belief of the model. When two competing models are a priori considered to be equiprobable, the ratio of their posterior probabilities corresponds to the Bayes factor .
Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to infer properties of an underlying probability distribution. [1] Inferential statistical analysis infers properties of a population, for example by testing hypotheses and deriving estimates. It is assumed that the observed data set is sampled from a larger population.
Probabilistic formulation of inverse problems leads to the definition of a probability distribution in the model space. This probability distribution combines prior information with new information obtained by measuring some observable parameters (data). As, in the general case, the theory linking data with model parameters is nonlinear, the ...
This is the same as saying that the probability of event {1,2,3,4,6} is 5/6. This event encompasses the possibility of any number except five being rolled. The mutually exclusive event {5} has a probability of 1/6, and the event {1,2,3,4,5,6} has a probability of 1, that is, absolute certainty.
A Bernoulli process is a finite or infinite sequence of independent random variables X 1, X 2, X 3, ..., such that for each i, the value of X i is either 0 or 1; for all values of , the probability p that X i = 1 is the same. In other words, a Bernoulli process is a sequence of independent identically distributed Bernoulli trials.