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Prediction site founders and researchers have long argued that betting markets are more accurate than traditional polling. This week was the biggest demonstration to back up that claim.
However, I'm more confident about predicting what will happen with the stock market if Harris wins. Vice President Kamala Harris. Image source: Official White House photo by Lawrence Jackson.
Since Coplan, 26, founded the crypto-based prediction market platform, Polymarket has raised $70 million, and in September reportedly sought to raise an additional $50 million among the election ...
While Polymarket cannot operate in the United States, its U.S. election prediction market has amassed almost $3 billion worth of volume and had Trump polling around 58% on Monday.
Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform. [1] [2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'mana', as well as 'Sweepcash,' which can be withdrawn for real money, or donated to charity. [3] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the ...
Coplan’s site—which is a prediction market that invites users to bet money on a given outcome—foreshadowed major developments in the election. Those include Polymarket predicting President ...
Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, [3] Polymarket is a prediction market that allows users to gain/lose on the outcome of world events. [4] In January 2022, Polymarket was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and received a cease and desist order for regulatory violations, including failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility.
The stock market performed well during his four years in office, with the S&P 500 soaring 70%. Some investors could base their expectations of a second Trump term on what they saw in his first term.
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