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When we find fewer than five polls in 2016 or fewer than two polls since July 2016, we use Cook Political Report ratings to estimate where the race stands. We run the simulations out to Election Day, Nov. 8. Since we don’t have polling data for the future, the model assumes voter intentions generally continue along their current trajectories.
Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016. He lost the popular vote but won the electoral college . [ 1 ] [ 2 ] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton , but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts.
Election 2016 Presidential Forecast. ... Senate Forecast. Percent of simulations where each party gains control of Senate. Dem. 71%. 50/50 Split. 22% (VP determines
Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.
In the final update of his presidential forecast model at midday of November 4, 2008, Silver projected a popular vote victory by 6.1 percentage points for Barack Obama and electoral vote totals of 349 (based on a probabilistic projection) or 353 (based on fixed projections of each state). [538 12] Obama won with 365 electoral college votes.
Voters in each state decide how their state's electors will vote. Most states are winner-take-all: whoever wins in California earns all 55 of its electoral college votes.
Presidential polls in Florida. Both Clinton and Trump are campaigning hard in the crucial Sunshine State. A RealClearPolitics average of state polls, as of Oct. 11, gives Clinton a 2.7-point edge ...
The two major party candidates were chosen at the Democratic National Convention and Republican National Convention in July 2016. The general election occurred on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The general election occurred on Tuesday, November 8, 2016.