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Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016. He lost the popular vote but won the electoral college . [ 1 ] [ 2 ] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton , but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts.
Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections. [1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of ...
The 2016 election was the fifth and most recent presidential election in which the winning candidate lost the popular vote. [ 2 ] [ 4 ] Six states plus a portion of Maine that Obama won in 2012 switched to Trump (Electoral College votes in parentheses): Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), and ...
In the end, Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory was decided by Wisconsin, just as it was eight years ago in the presidential race against Hillary Clinton.. Clinton was the favorite to take the ...
Except for losing one poll in August 2015, and tying with Trump in a poll in September 2015, Clinton won every pre-election poll with margins between 4 and 12 points until November 2016. In late October 2016, Clinton's lead narrowed significantly towards the election. Trump also won the last poll conducted on election day 49% to 47%. [31]
What we've learned from the consistent poll numbers shaping the 2024 election. Mark Murray. ... It's not the -33 net rating he had heading into his first presidential election in 2016, but it's ...
Most states consistently vote red or blue, such as 38 states that voted for the same party over and over between 2000 and 2016, or they are visibly leaning in an overwhelming direction ahead of ...
When we find fewer than five polls in 2016 or fewer than two polls since July 2016, we use Cook Political Report ratings to estimate where the race stands. We run the simulations out to Election Day, Nov. 8. Since we don’t have polling data for the future, the model assumes voter intentions generally continue along their current trajectories.