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For a 4-4-3-2 pattern, one needs to specify which suit contains the three-card and which suit contains the doubleton in order to identify the length in each of the four suits. There are four possibilities to first identify the three-card suit and three possibilities to next identify the doubleton.
The difference in percentages is so close (the Bridge Encyclopedia states that the finesse is a 50% probability of success holding 8 cards, while the drop has a 53% holding 9 cards) that the slightest inference might influence a player to choose to finesse or to drop with nine cards.
There are a number of bridge conventions that take advantage of this principle. For example, Bergen raises following an opening bid of one of a major (using a 5-card major system): 3 of the major = 4-card support and 0-6 HCP; 3C = 4-card support and 7-9 points; 3D = 4-card support and 10-12 HCP
Articles related to probability in the card game bridge. Pages in category "Contract bridge probabilities" The following 6 pages are in this category, out of 6 total.
Contract bridge, or simply bridge, is a trick-taking card game using a standard 52-card deck. In its basic format, it is played by four players in two competing partnerships , [ 1 ] with partners sitting opposite each other around a table.
The probability of East getting all three of the missing cards is 1/2 × 12/25 × 11/24 which is exactly 0.11, which is the value that we see in the fourth row of the table (3 - 0 : 0.22 : 2 : 0.11). Now, let's calculate the individual probability of a 2–2 split when missing four cards (the following row in the table).
The principle of restricted choice is a guideline used in card games such as contract bridge to intuit hidden information. It may be stated as "The play of a card which may have been selected as a choice of equal plays increases the chance that the player started with a holding in which his choice was restricted."
Shows 4+ cards in the unbid suits. See negative double. 3) 1 ♣ – Dbl – pass – 1 ♠; Dbl: Again, the opener has shortness in spades and support for other three suits. 4) 1 ♣ – (1 ♥) – pass – (2 ♥); Dbl: This shows shortness in hearts, but the opener must have extra strength, as the responder is forced to bid on level 2 or 3.