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The natural rate of unemployment is the name that was given to a key concept in the study of economic activity. Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps, tackling this 'human' problem in the 1960s, both received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for their work, and the development of the concept is cited as a main motivation behind the prize.
For this reason, the Federal Reserve targets the natural rate of unemployment or NAIRU, which was around 5% in 2015. A rate of unemployment below this level would be consistent with rising inflation in theory, as a shortage of workers would bid wages (and thus prices) upward. [26]
This is because in the short run, there is generally an inverse relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate; as illustrated in the downward sloping short-run Phillips curve. In the long run, that relationship breaks down and the economy eventually returns to the natural rate of unemployment regardless of the inflation rate. [18]
The "natural" rate of unemployment is defined as the rate of unemployment that exists when the labour market is in equilibrium, and there is pressure for neither rising inflation rates nor falling inflation rates.
The non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) [1] is a theoretical level of unemployment below which inflation would be expected to rise. [2] It was first introduced as the NIRU (non-inflationary rate of unemployment) by Franco Modigliani and Lucas Papademos in 1975, as an improvement over the "natural rate of unemployment" concept, [3] [4] [5] which was proposed earlier by ...
Matthew Busch/Bloomberg via Getty Images By Ann Saphir Changes in the U.S. labor force may allow the economy to sustain a much lower rate of joblessness in the future without fear of inflation, a ...
The Natural rate of unemployment refers to the rate of unemployment due to structural or supply-side factors alone. Cyclical factors, such as government stimulus or austerity policies, cause the actual unemployment rate to vary around the natural rate. Economists debate the natural rate of unemployment.
If the economy is said to be at a potential GDP level, the unemployment rate ostensibly equals the NAIRU (the "natural rate of unemployment"). There is great disagreement among economists as to what these rates actually are, while the concept itself of NAIRU is rejected by Post-Keynesians as non-valid. [1] [2] [3]