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The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...
In the 2020 election, RealClearPolitics projected Joe Biden winning with 319 electoral votes. RCP expected Biden to capture key battleground states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which had flipped to Trump in 2016. RCP's final prediction closely aligned with the actual results, as Biden won 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232.
Based on 538’s latest analysis of presidential polls, Trump now has the barest advantage in the race, with a 52-in-100 chance to win. Two weeks ago, Harris had a 58-in-100 chance to win. Two ...
With less than 60 days before the 2024 presidential election — and on the eve of the first debate between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump — polls suggest that this ...
Local regression of two-way polling between Trump, Biden and Kennedy conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided). The dashed line marks Biden's withdrawal from the race.
Forecasts by 538 and Decision Desk HQ/The Hill have been suspended since Biden withdrew from the race, but Silver Bulletin’s model on Aug. 18 suggests Harris has a 53.5% chance of winning in ...
After a ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court, Colorado became the first state to disqualify former President Donald Trump from its primary ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. Trump will remain on the ballot pending a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Trump v. Anderson. McLaughlin & Associates [55] December 13–19, 2023 454 (LV) – 4% 11%
Biden and Trump’s own history should make you think twice about calling wraps on this race as well. Biden was ahead by 9 points in the early July national polls in 2020. He ended up winning the ...