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In statistics, Poisson regression is a generalized linear model form of regression analysis used to model count data and contingency tables. [1] Poisson regression assumes the response variable Y has a Poisson distribution, and assumes the logarithm of its expected value can be modeled by a linear combination of unknown parameters.
Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero.
Algorithms for calculating variance play a major role in computational statistics.A key difficulty in the design of good algorithms for this problem is that formulas for the variance may involve sums of squares, which can lead to numerical instability as well as to arithmetic overflow when dealing with large values.
These formulas are based on the observation that the day of the week progresses in a predictable manner based upon each subpart of that date. Each term within the formula is used to calculate the offset needed to obtain the correct day of the week. For the Gregorian calendar, the various parts of this formula can therefore be understood as follows:
where is a reconstruction offset value in the range of 0 to 1 as a fraction of the step size. Ordinarily, 0 ≤ r k ≤ 1 2 {\displaystyle 0\leq r_{k}\leq {\tfrac {1}{2}}} when quantizing input data with a typical probability density function (PDF) that is symmetric around zero and reaches its peak value at zero (such as a Gaussian , Laplacian ...
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where () is a truncated probability distribution function, truncated at 0. Hurdle models were introduced by John G. Cragg in 1971, [ 1 ] where the non-zero values of x were modelled using a normal model , and a probit model was used to model the zeros.
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