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A superforecaster is a person who makes forecasts that can be shown by statistical means to have been consistently more accurate than the general public or experts. . Superforecasters sometimes use modern analytical and statistical methodologies to augment estimates of base rates of events; research finds that such forecasters are typically more accurate than experts in the field who do not ...
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. [1]
The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events".It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania.
Overall, their superforecasters gave a median estimate of 9.05 percent for a catastrophe from whatever source by 2100 while the median according to the experts was 20 percent, with 95 percent confidence intervals of [6.13, 10.25] and [15.44, 27.60] percent for superforecasters and experts, respectively.
Our guide to daily Cialis has more info about the advantages and disadvantages of using Cialis every day to treat ED. Less Common, More Serious Side Effects of Cialis.
Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is a safety analysis method first developed for systems engineering which examines potential failures in products or processes. It may be used to evaluate risk management priorities for mitigating known threat-vulnerabilities.
Asset. Allocation. Description. Stocks. 30%. You can divide this portion of your retirement portfolio among broad-market mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that include stocks from ...
Ellen DeGeneres is setting the record straight about the status of her new U.K. home amid severe storms that devastated parts of the U.K.. After reports circulated over the weekend that the former ...