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In probability and statistics, the PERT distributions are a family of continuous probability distributions defined by the minimum (a), most likely (b) and maximum (c) values that a variable can take. It is a transformation of the four-parameter beta distribution with an additional assumption that its expected value is
It can be understood as representing the time, effort, and resources required to move from one event to another. A PERT activity cannot be performed until the predecessor event has occurred. PERT sub-activity: a PERT activity can be further decomposed into a set of sub-activities. For example, activity A1 can be decomposed into A1.1, A1.2 and A1.3.
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The PERT distribution is a special case of the four-parameter beta distribution. The uniform distribution or rectangular distribution on [a,b], where all points in a finite interval are equally likely, is a special case of the four-parameter Beta distribution.
PERT chart for a project with five milestones (10 through 50) and six activities (A through F). The project has two critical paths: activities B and C, or A, D, and F – giving a minimum project time of 7 months with fast tracking. Activity E is sub-critical, and has a float of 1 month.
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It's much less popular than PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) or CPM (Critical Path Method) however, it allows some of those methods limitations to be addressed. The main limitations of PERT or CPM that might be addressed by GERT are: there are no alternative paths - all activities have to be performed
For example, a triangular distribution might be used, depending on the application. In three-point estimation, three figures are produced initially for every distribution that is required, based on prior experience or best-guesses: a = the best-case estimate; m = the most likely estimate; b = the worst-case estimate
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