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44%. Actual result. 60.80%. 36.54%. Difference between actual result and final poll. +4.80%. -7.46%. After predicting the winners of the previous five elections, The Literary Digest (based on cards mailed in by its readers) predicted that Alf Landon would win by a large margin. George Gallup predicted a Roosevelt win, based on statistical ...
Donald Trump won the general election of Tuesday, November 8, 2016. He lost the popular vote but won the electoral college . [ 1 ] [ 2 ] Most polls correctly predicted a popular vote victory for Hillary Clinton , but overestimated the size of her lead, with the result that Trump's electoral college victory was a surprise to analysts.
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the general election for the 2024 United States presidential election.The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
As of Friday, the Real Clear Politics average of recent national polls give Harris a 1.8% lead over Trump. At this time four years ago, Democratic nominee Joe Biden had a lead of 10.3 percentage ...
Although national polling heading into the election gave Clinton a couple-point lead, a similar margin to her popular vote win, Trump outperformed expectations in the key states to win the ...
Political poll averaging. RealClearPolitics aggregates polls for presidential and congressional races into averages, known as the RealClearPolitics average, which are widely cited by media outlets. Both major presidential campaigns in 2004 said that the RCP polling average was the best metric of the race. [43]
Harris is outpacing Trump in national polls kept by the FiveThirtyEight political website with 47 percent support to 44 percent with 62 days to go before the election. But Biden had a bigger lead ...
On Election Day, Trump over-performed his polls, winning several key swing states, while losing the popular vote by 2.87 million votes. [20] Trump received the majority in the Electoral College and won upset victories in the Democratic-leaning Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The pivotal victory in this region, which ...